Analysis of ginger market in the next five years (forecast of ginger planting prospects in 2022)

Analysis of ginger market in 2022

The sharp fluctuations in ginger prices have a great impact on growers . Due to the large initial capital investment in ginger planting, some ginger farmers still have to take out loans to invest, which is a big loss for large growers with hundreds of acres of land. According to the current market conditions, the ginger planting area may decrease next year.

Therefore, the ginger market may not be very good in the next five years . Since the price of ginger is relatively high this year, a large number of growers have planted ginger. The final result is that there is too much ginger in the market, causing the market price to continue to fall. (Based only on the current market analysis, it is not a final judgment. Whether to increase the planting area depends on the local market conditions.)

Ginger Price and Market Analysis

1. Supply and demand law dimension

First of all, the rise in ginger prices in previous years is an objective result of the law of supply and demand . The biggest reason why the "Ginger Army" phenomenon appeared in previous years was that there was a problem with the supply and demand of the entire market.

From the supply perspective, in previous years, due to natural disasters and various unexpected situations, there have been problems with ginger supply.

However, the demand of the entire market did not change at that time, and there was even a trend of increasing demand. This was the root cause of the large-scale increase in ginger prices in previous years, which was caused by the contradiction between supply and demand at that time .

Secondly, when we look at the ginger market this year, there has been a significant reversal in the supply and demand in the market.

On the one hand, since the price of ginger has been rising in previous years, a large number of growers have flocked in. A large number of growers have rushed to grow ginger without any hesitation.

This often leads to a double growth pattern in ginger planting area and planting yield, which will inevitably lead to a bumper ginger harvest.

On the other hand, let's look at the demand side. The supply of ginger is already abundant, but from the demand side, the market demand in 2021 is not as high as in previous years, especially the significant reduction in exports.

The end result is that there is too much ginger on the market, causing prices in the market to continue to fall in 2021. This is the biggest problem facing the current ginger market.

2. Long-term market development dimension

From the perspective of long-term market development, what the current market needs most is neither a large-scale price increase nor a large-scale price reduction, but a stable market price. This will allow growers to have a clear profit expectation in 2022, which is a reasonable market.

Therefore, the most important thing for ginger planting is to effectively regulate the market. Let every ginger consumer buy ginger at a reasonable price, which is what the current ginger market needs most.

Ginger planting cost trend in the next five years

This year, ginger growers are really happy and sad. The good news is that due to the improvement of management level and overall investment, the average cost per mu of ginger farmers this year is about 13,000 yuan (fertilizer, pesticide, ginger seeds, land contracting, drip irrigation facilities, etc.), and the yield is high.

Sadly, the market is bad this year, and many ginger farmers still have a lot of turmeric that they haven't sold yet. This year, they are expanding their planting. If they don't have land at home, they have to go to other places to grow it. Last year, the rent for one mu of land was 1,000 yuan, but this year it has risen to about 1,500 yuan. The price of ginger has fallen below the cost price.

According to the current market conditions, the price of young seedlings at the farm gate is 0.50-0.60 yuan per catty (excluding labor costs). Ginger farmers generally report that the output has increased significantly this year.

For example, this year many mu of land can produce 13,000 jin of mud ginger, but the surplus is only 6,500 yuan, and the loss of ginger farmers will reach 50%, resulting in a situation of high production but low harvest.